The study estimates that in 2025, S$1.7 billion in outbound spend was offset by S$1.3 billion in inbound spend. Looking ahead, with improved connectivity, Singapore’s retail and F&B businesses could gain S$756 million in incremental annual spending from JB visitors. Conversely, Singapore consumer spending in JB is projected to increase by an incremental S$1.05 billion a year. Overall, the RTS link could result in a net incremental outbound spend of $290 million annually, which equates to 0.4% of Singapore’s total retail and F&B sales in 2025. 

RTS Link Brings Both Competitive Pressure and New Visitor Opportunities

The RTS Link will heighten competition for Singapore’s retail and F&B businesses, which are already facing manpower, cost, and rental pressures. The study projects a 51% increase in outbound trips by Singapore consumers, with groceries accounting for the largest share of outbound spend, followed by Drug Stores, Dining and Beauty as Singapore consumers seek better value across the border. Regions outside the North are expected to feel a greater net impact, as the North already sees higher outbound spend pre-RTS. 

At the same time, the RTS link could bring more JB visitors to Singapore, especially for premium retail, entertainment, and major lifestyle events. The study found that 34% of JB respondents intend to visit Singapore for events post-RTS launch, up from 24% today, while annual visits by public transport users could increase by 57% on average. JB visitors who previously drove indicated they will switch to RTS, with a preference for overnight stay and spending on entertainment. RTS will also spur more existing public transport users to travel with friends to Singapore for shopping.  Recreation spending is also projected to double post-launch, driven mainly by events and entertainment.

Businesses Urge Support to Compete Beyond Price

Findings from the study were reinforced by Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) with businesses across the retail, F&B, and broader business ecosystem. Participants were concerned that the RTS Link would accentuate competition from JB, particularly in price-sensitive segments such as groceries, pharmaceuticals, beauty services, where lower cross-border prices are already influencing consumer spending patterns. 

Businesses agreed that competing on price alone was not viable. They saw service quality, unique customer experiences and locally distinctive offerings as the strongest ways to differentiate. At the same time, participants flagged persistent manpower, compliance and cost pressures that limit their ability to innovate and scale. SMEs were particularly concerned about adapting as quickly as larger operators, and called for more support to strengthen competitiveness and capture new opportunities from increased cross-border flows.

Three Priorities to Help Businesses Adapt and Compete

The Retail and F&B sectors are key pillars of Singapore's economy, contributing approximately S$16.6 billion to Singapore’s economy in 2025. More broadly, the Wholesale & Retail Trade and Accommodation & Food Services sectors employed approximately 721,800 workers in 2025, accounting for 17.5% of total employment in Singapore (excluding Migrant Domestic Workers). They are also central to Singapore’s tourism appeal, with shopping and dining accounting for about 31% of tourism receipts. Strengthening these sectors is therefore critical to sustaining businesses and jobs, while keeping Singapore attractive to visitors. 

Based on the study findings, SBF, RAS and SRA have identified three priority areas for industry and government action:

• Stimulate Local Spend: Stabilise and sustain domestic consumer spending in the face of increased outbound demand, particularly in categories and locations most exposed to cross-border substitution through consumption vouchers and support for stronger retail and F&B offerings.

• Boost Tourist Spend: Encourage RTS-enabled visitors to stay longer, explore more and spend more across Singapore by strengthening our attractiveness as a destination for experiences, events, and higher-value consumption.

• Support Business Adaptation: Help retail and F&B businesses adapt and seize new opportunities in a more integrated Singapore–Johor corridor, by addressing structural cost pressures and supporting new operating and business models.

The study also underscores the need for stronger collaboration among trade associations, landlords, tourism stakeholders, and government agencies, so businesses can better respond to changing consumer trends and increased cross-border connectivity.

A summary of the key recommendations can be found in Annex A, while a link to the full study report and recommendations is in Annex B.  

Mr Kok Ping Soon, Chief Executive Officer, SBF, said, “The RTS Link will reshape how consumers travel, shop, and dine across Singapore and Johor Bahru. This creates opportunities for Singapore businesses to attract more visitors, but it also raises competitive pressure, especially for our retail and F&B sectors. This shift is structural, not incremental.  Businesses must adapt beyond price competition by strengthening their offerings, experiences and productivity, while industry and government must work together to help them compete in a more connected cross-border market.”

Mr Ernie Koh, President, SRA, said, “We anticipate a measurable shift in consumer behaviour when the RTS connects seamlessly to Singapore’s Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) network. While local retailers pivot heavily towards experiential concepts, and malls actively curate tenant remixes, we look forward to specific government mitigation measures such as increased manpower flexibility and support over the next three to five years.” 

Mr Benjamin Boh, President, RAS, said, “Singapore’s F&B sector currently operates in a dynamic and cost-sensitive climate. With increased cross-border travel, we can expect new pressures to be introduced on an already highly competitive F&B industry at large, and opportunities for selective players based on where inbound visitors typically spend their money. To capture both local and tourist spending, businesses must be empowered with manpower agility and operational flexibility to consistently deliver compelling dining experiences that give local consumers more reasons to spend in Singapore while attracting more visitors.”  

This study is supported by CapitaLand Investment and Frasers Property, with Mastercard serving as the study's knowledge partner and insight contributor. For more information on the study, a factsheet is available in Annex C.